Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Toward Cyborg PPGIS: exploring socio-technical requirements for the use of web-based PPGIS in two municipal planning cases,Stockholm region,Sweden

Web-based Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) are increasingly used for surveying place values and informing municipal planning in contexts of urban densification. However, research is lagging behind the rapid deployment of PPGIS applications. Some of the main opportunities and challenges for the uptake and implementation of web-based PPGIS are derived from a literature review and two case studies dealing with municipal planning for urban densification in the Stockholm region, Sweden. A simple clustering analysis identified three interconnected themes that together determine the performance of PPGIS: (i) tool design and affordances; (ii) organisational capacity; and (iii) governance. The results of the case studies augment existing literature regarding the connections between the different socio-technical dimensions for the design, implementation and evaluation of PPGIS applications in municipal planning. A cyborg approach to PPGIS is then proposed to improve the theoretical basis for addressing these dimensions together.     

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and barriers to adaptation: lessons learned from an exploratory study in Vietnam

Southeast Asian countries are confronting climate variability, challenging agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods. However, little research effort has been devoted to exploring how farmers in those countries perceive climate variability and how the perceptions link to adaptive responses. This paper deploys information from three focus group discussions with 30 male farmers; and six in-depth interviews with one female and five male agricultural officers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Recorded 34-year meteorological data in the delta from 1978 to 2011 is also incorporated to demonstrate the actual climate variability of the region. We find that farmers are becoming increasingly conscious of local climate variability issues. However, they have limited understanding of the importance of adaptation to their livelihoods. They also have limited knowledge of where and who to contact for appropriate climate change adaptation information. No opinions about the link between global warming and local climate variability and change were observed. Casual observation via public media and personal experience dominated farmers’ sources of information. Barriers to farmers’ adaptation are not exclusively restricted to socio-economic factors and resource constraints; e.g. land tenure, technical knowledge, market, social relationship, credit, information, health care, and demographics. Maladaptation, habit, and the perception of the importance of climate variability and adaptation are found as additional constraints. Observed differences in farmers’ and agricultural officers’ perspectives regarding barriers to farmers’ adaptation suggest important policy implications.     

Flux measurements of volatile organic compounds by the relaxed eddy accumulation method combined with a GC-FID system in urban Houston,Texas

A tall tower flux measurement setup was established in metropolitan Houston, Texas, to measure trace gas fluxes from emission sources in the urban surface layer. We describe a new relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) system combined with a dual-channel GC-FID used for VOC flux measurements, focusing on benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) results. Ambient air sampled from 60 m above the ground next to a sonic anemometer was subsampled by a membrane pump and pushed into an REA valve system with two Teflon bag reservoirs, then transferred to two preconcentration units for thermal desorption. We discuss the performance of our system and the selected BTEX measurement results using approximately 8 weeks of data (May 22–July 22, 2008), presenting diurnal variations of concentrations and fluxes of these traffic tracers. The measured values exhibited diurnal cycles with dominant morning and midday peaks during weekdays related to rush hour traffic and additional weekday daytime toluene and xylenes emissions. Local evaporative emissions, likely from solvent usage, significantly contributed to the measured fluxes. We upscaled measured emissions to the county level using a high resolution land cover data set and compared the results with EPA’s National Emission Inventory (NEI).     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Compositional changes of crude oil SARA fractions due to biodegradation and adsorption on colloidal support such as clays using Iatroscan

The compositional changes of saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions in aqueous clay/oil microcosm experiments with a hydrocarbon-degrading microorganism community were analysed using Iatroscan. The clay mineral samples used in this study were organomontmorillonite, acid-activated montmorillonite and K, Ca, Zn and Cr montmorillonites produced by modifying the original montmorillonite sample. The evaluation and quantification of biodegradation and adsorption were carried out using a combination of the Iatroscan and gravimetric analysis. The SARA compositions in the presence of organomontmorillonite and acid-activated montmorillonite after incubation follow the same pattern in which the aromatic fraction is higher than the other fractions unlike in the presence of unmodified, K, Ca and Zn montmorillonites, where the saturates fraction is higher than the other fractions. Changes in SARA fractions due to biodegradation seemed to occur most in the presence of unmodified and calcium montmorillonites; hence, the removal of SARA fractions due to biodegradation was significant and enhanced in the presence of these two clay samples. However, biodegradation in the presence of organomontmorillonite and acid-activated and Cr montmorillonites was hindered. The study indicated that Cr montmorillonite adsorbed resins most, whereas Zn and K montmorillonites adsorbed aromatics most after incubation.     

An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources1

Zardari, Noor ul Hassan, Ian Cordery, and Ashish Sharma, 2010. An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):412-428. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00410.x Abstract: In this study, end user (farmer) and decision maker (water allocator) opinions were surveyed and a conjoint analysis (CA) based method was applied to the quantitative and qualitative data to assess the utility associated with each attribute that plays a role in forming the final thinking of the water users. The application of CA for estimating the utility for each attribute level is a novel approach, which helps provide a formal, objective basis for assigning relative scales for each attribute interval within a multiattribute decision-making model. The utilities (part-worths) obtained from the CA have a cardinal scale and were found to be comparable within and across the attributes. A farmers’ survey on five water allocation attributes was completed from 62 farmers and their opinions on the relative importance of attributes were elicited for a subarea of the Indus River Basin. The CA method was then applied to the survey data and the utilities for each attribute level were determined. This allowed, for instance, decisions to be made, which take account of the perceived value of the water and of the availability of local labor to work on the farm. Finally, these interval scales were used within the specification of the ELECTRE multiattribute decision-making method to provide a complete and objective ranking of nine irrigation districts so that the best decisions on water allocation could be made.     

The relationship between the implementation of a Safety Management System and the attitudes of employees towards unsafe acts in aviation

Airports represent highly complex organisations, incorporating such interdependent operations as airlines, ground transport, flight services, ground services, refueling, maintenance, customer services, catering, administration and security. Airports, and especially International Airports, must ensure that their operations are conducted in a safe and efficient manner, as the consequence of any error or failure during operations has the potential for catastrophic outcomes. The international governing body for air transportation, ICAO, requires that airports must implement a Safety Management System as a means of ensuring safe operations and eliminating or reducing the likelihood of low frequency/high consequence incidents. This research project sought to determine the extent to which the implementation of a Safety Management System (SMS) influenced the attitudes of airport employees toward unsafe acts. The hypothesis tested was that the implementation of an SMS into an airport will result in an improvement in attitudes toward safety. A Safety Culture Survey was utilized to measure these attitudes. Two International Airports were chosen to measure the extent to which the introduction of an SMS at one airport would influence the safety attitude and culture of those employees. Sharjah International Airport, UAE, was used as the experimental group, as it did not have a formal SMS in operation, with another English-speaking International Airport (the Second Airport) being used as a control group, as it already had an SMS in operation. A Safety Culture Survey was used as the pre and post-test measure over a 12-month period to determine the extent of influence of the introduction of the SMS at Sharjah Airport. The results of Phase 1 of the survey (June 2008) were compared against the results of Phase 2 of the survey (June 2009). The average score reported by participants at Sharjah Airport increased significantly from pre-test measure to post-test measure in relation to communication, safety rules, supportive environment, personal risk appreciation, work environment, and involvement. At the same time, the average score for personal priorities decreased significantly from Phases 1 to 2. Results indicate that participants at Sharjah Airport recorded a significant positive shift in attitude to the safety factors covered in the Safety Culture Survey, whilst at the same time responses from the Second Airport showed no such shift in attitude. The Second Airport showed neither decline nor improvement in responses. Whilst some methodological issues were identified, the results were of sufficient strength as to conclude that the outcomes reported support the hypothesis that the introduction of an SMS at Sharjah Airport has effected positive changes not observed at the Second Airport. Recommendations for ongoing research were made to further explore the strength of relationship between SMS and safety attitudes, as well as the relationship between safe attitude and safe behaviour.     

Bioaccumulation of perfluoroalkyl acids in dairy cows in a naturally contaminated environment

Beef and dairy products may be important vectors of human exposure to perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), but the understanding of how PFAAs are accumulated and transferred through agricultural food chains is very limited. Here, the bioaccumulation of PFAAs in dairy cows receiving naturally contaminated feed and drinking water was investigated by conducting a mass balance of PFAAs for a herd of dairy cows in a barn on a typical Swedish dairy farm. It was assumed that the cows were able to reach steady state with their dietary intake of PFAAs. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) with 8 to 12 carbons were detected in cow tissue samples (liver, muscle, and blood) at concentrations up to 130 ng kg^?1. Mass balance calculations demonstrated an agreement between total intake and excretion within a factor of 1.5 and consumption of silage was identified as the dominant intake pathway for all PFAAs. Biomagnification factors (BMFs) were highly tissue and homologue specific. While BMFs of PFOS and PFCAs with 9 and 10 fluorinated carbons in liver ranged from 10 to 20, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was not biomagnified (BMF?<?1) in any of the investigated tissues. Biotransfer factors (BTFs; defined as the concentration in tissue divided by the total daily intake) were calculated for muscle and milk. Log BTFs ranged from ?1.95 to ?1.15 day kg^?1 with the highest BTF observed for PFOS in muscle. Overall, the results of this study suggest that long-chain PFAAs have a relatively high potential for transfer to milk and beef from the diet of dairy cows. However, a low input of PFAAs to terrestrial systems via atmospheric deposition and low bioavailability of PFAAs in soil limits the amount of PFAAs that enter terrestrial agricultural food chains in background contaminated environments and makes this pathway less important than aquatic exposure pathways. The BTFs estimated here provide a useful tool for predicting human exposure to PFAAs via milk and beef under different contamination scenarios.     

The effect of changing the fuel of the LASTFIRE test

The LASTFIRE test is intended for the evaluation of foams used in extinguishing fires of flammable and combustible liquids in storage tanks in refinery and oil related facilities. The purpose of this study is to find, experimentally, an alternative fuel to be used in the LASTFIRE test, as a replacement for the heptane fuel, which is normally used in this test. Beside heptane, three other fuels are tested in the current study: diesel, jet A1 and kerosene. The study involved performing the LASTFIRE test, using each of the fuels and then comparing the results. The same foam is used as an extinguishing agent for all the tests and for each fuel, tests are conducted three times with separate foam discharging nozzles: semi-aspirated, aspirated and system. Using a commonly used scoring system, the results of the four fuels are evaluated. Any replaceable fuel should obtain the similar score as that is obtained by heptane. The study shows that none of the three alternatives has been judged to be suitable to replace heptane, in the LASTFIRE test.